Viendo archivo del viernes, 15 octubre 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Oct 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 288 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 OCT 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8731
(N12E10) STABILIZED AS A MODERATE-SIZED, MAGNETICALLY-COMPLEX REGION
AND IT APPEARED TO HAVE LOST THE MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION NEAR
REGION CENTER. IT PRODUCED NUMEROUS FLARES, THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS
A C7/SF AT 15/0115Z. NEW REGION 8734 (N16E20) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8731 IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE M-CLASS FLARES AND MAY
ALSO PRODUCE ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS DUE TO CONTINUING CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY ACTIVE ON DAY ONE AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES. QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD AS CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 OCT a 18 OCT
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 OCT 198 Previsto 16 OCT-18 OCT 200/200/195 Media de 90 Días 15 OCT 156
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 OCT 017/024 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 OCT 028/025 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 OCT-18 OCT 020/020-015/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 OCT a 18 OCT
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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