Viendo archivo del sábado, 17 julio 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Jul 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 198 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 JUL 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE TWO ACTIVE REGIONS WERE
8535 (N44W92) AND 8536 (N20E73). BOTH REGIONS PRODUCED SEVERAL
OPTICAL SUBFLARES DURING THE DAY. REGION 8535 ALSO PRODUCED 2
C-CLASS EVENTS, THE LARGEST WAS A C3/SF AT 17/1631UT. REGION 8536
WAS NUMBERED TODAY. IT APPEARS TO BE RETURNING REGION 8539. THAT
REGION PRODUCED SEVERAL C AND M-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE LAST
ROTATION.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. ALTHOUGH REGION 8535 WILL ROTATE OFF OF THE DISK THIS
PERIOD, REGION 8536 COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON THE THIRD DAY.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 JUL a 20 JUL
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 JUL 137 Previsto 18 JUL-20 JUL 150/155/160 Media de 90 Días 17 JUL 152
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 JUL 005/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 JUL 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 JUL-20 JUL 005/007-005/007-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 JUL a 20 JUL
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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