Viendo archivo del jueves, 1 julio 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Jul 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 182 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 JUL 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DECLINED TO LOW LEVELS. SUBFLARE
ACTIVITY OCCURRED WITHIN A VARIETY OF REGIONS. HOWEVER, REGIONS 8603
(S14W25) AND 8611 (S25E07) WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BULK OF THE
FLARING. REGION 8611 SHOWED A SMALL INCREASE IN AREA DUE TO
PENUMBRAL DEVELOPMENT AND CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME MIXING OF
POLARITIES. IT PRODUCED THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PERIOD: A C8/SF AT
01/1748Z. REGION 8603 ALSO SHOWED SOME POLARITY MIXING, BUT NO
GROWTH WAS EVIDENT. IT PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES INCLUDING
A C5/SF AT 01/0147Z WITH A WEAK TYPE II RADIO SWEEP (EST. SHOCK
VELOCITY 600 KM/SEC). NEW REGIONS 8614 (N19E72) AND 8615 (S29E77)
WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR ISOLATED, LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS
FLARES.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING MOST OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE'S ALSO A CHANCE FOR ACTIVE PERIODS DURING THE
FIRST TWO DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A FAINT HALO CME SEEN ON 30 JUNE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 JUL a 04 JUL
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 JUL 195 Previsto 02 JUL-04 JUL 195/190/180 Media de 90 Días 01 JUL 147
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 JUN 003/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 JUL 009/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 JUL-04 JUL 012/012-010/010-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 JUL a 04 JUL
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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