Viendo archivo del domingo, 30 mayo 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 May 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 150 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 MAY 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE PERIOD WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY
SEVERAL SUBFLARES IN REGION 8558 (N16E43) AND A PAIR OF C1 X-RAY
LONG DURATION EVENTS (LDE). REGION 8558 EXHIBITED STEADY GROWTH AND
NOW CONSISTS OF APPROXIMATELY 30 SPOTS MEASURING 300 MILLIONTHS OF
WHITE LIGHT AREA. FREQUENT BRIGHTNESS FLUCTUATIONS AND SURGES WERE
ALSO OBSERVED IN THIS REGION, BUT ONLY MINOR MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY WAS
NOTED. THE FIRST OF TWO C1 LDE X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED AT 30/0328Z,
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A CME OFF THE NE LIMB. THE SECOND C1 LDE
OCCURRED AT 30/1155Z AND ALSO APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A CME,
THIS TIME FROM THE W LIMB.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY FROM REGION 8558
AND C-CLASS FLARES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM 8560 (S24E35), 8552
(N19W18), AND 8559 (N20E03) WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED FROM THE LONG DURATION C1 X-RAY EVENTS AND ASSOCIATED CME'S
DUE TO THE PRESUMED DIRECTION OF THE EJECTA.
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 MAY a 02 JUN
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 MAY 157 Previsto 31 MAY-02 JUN 160/160/160 Media de 90 Días 30 MAY 131
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 MAY 003/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 MAY 007/006 PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 MAY-02 JUN 010/010-008/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 MAY a 02 JUN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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