Viendo archivo del martes, 18 mayo 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 May 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 138 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 MAY 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
M1 X-RAY FLARE LED-OFF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL C-CLASS X-RAY
EVENTS. MOST OF THESE SMALLER EVENTS ORIGINATED FROM REGION 8541
(N21W53).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH MINOR STORM CONDITIONS
SEEN IN THE HIGH LATITUDES FROM 18/06Z TO 18/09Z. THE DISTURBED
CONDITIONS WERE DUE TO THE EFFECT OF A RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE AND AN
ACCOMPANYING CO-ROTATING SHOCK.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DUE TO THE CONTINUING
EFFECTS OF A CORONAL HOLE AS WELL AS THE IMPACT OF A CME ORIGINATING
FROM THE NW LIMB ON 17/05Z.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 MAY a 21 MAY
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 MAY 141 Previsto 19 MAY-21 MAY 140/135/135 Media de 90 Días 18 MAY 129
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 MAY 001/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 MAY 021/023 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 MAY-21 MAY 020/020-010/012-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 MAY a 21 MAY
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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