Viendo archivo del lunes, 10 mayo 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 May 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 130 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 MAY 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. A SINGLE M2/2N FLARE
OCCURRED FROM REGION 8539 (N13E03) AT 10/0531UT. A FULL HALO CME
WAS OBSERVED BY SOHO/LASCO AFTER THIS FLARE.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBITS WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, BECOMING
UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM ON THE THIRD. A CORONAL HOLE IS ROTATING
INTO A GEOEFFECTIVE POSITION, A SMALL DISAPPEARING FILAMENT WAS
NOTED AT 07/1400UT, A MAJOR FLARE (M7) OCCURRED AT 09/1807UT, AND A
HALO CME WAS OBSERVED DURING AN M2 FLARE AT 10/0531UT FROM REGION
8539. ALL OF THESE COMPONENTS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THIS INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 MAY a 13 MAY
| Clase M | 75% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 MAY 170 Previsto 11 MAY-13 MAY 175/175/170 Media de 90 Días 10 MAY 132
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 MAY 004/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 MAY 007/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 MAY-13 MAY 015/012-015/015-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 MAY a 13 MAY
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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