Viendo archivo del sábado, 10 abril 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Apr 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 100 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 APR 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE MOST INTERESTING
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN IN REGION 8508 (N23W14) A SMALL BUT COMPLEX BETA
GAMMA REGION WITH A CONVOLUTED NEUTRAL LINE EXTENDING THROUGH THE
REGION. IT HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL FLARES RANGING UP TO CLASS C
INTENSITY. OTHER REGIONS ARE STABLE OR DECLINING.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ACE SOLAR WIND
DATA INDICATES EARTH MAY BE IN A HIGH SPEED STREAM. SOLAR WIND
VELOCITY HAS INCREASED MODERATELY ALONG WITH THE TEMPERATURE WHILE
THE DENSITY HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SOURCE IS
INDEFINITE BUT MAY BE A SMALL, POORLY-DEFINED CORONAL HOLE VISIBLE
AROUND N22W30. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
HAVE REMAINED AT MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 APR a 13 APR
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 APR 136 Previsto 11 APR-13 APR 132/130/128 Media de 90 Días 10 APR 135
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 APR 007/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 APR 014/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 APR-13 APR 012/010-010/010-010/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 APR a 13 APR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 14% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 07% | 08% | 06% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 03% | 03% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 13% | 11% | 13% |
| Tormenta Menor | 07% | 07% | 07% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 04% | 04% | 03% |
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