Viendo archivo del viernes, 12 marzo 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Mar 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 071 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 MAR 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8487 (N17E51) WAS THE
MOST ACTIVE REGION TODAY, PRODUCING A STEADY SEQUENCE OF FLARE
ACTIVITY INCLUDING AT LEAST 5 C-CLASS EVENTS. THE LARGEST OF THESE
WAS A C9/1B AT 1726Z. THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE SMALL, BUT IS
GROWING AND HAS SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. REGION 8485 (N23E13) IS
THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK AND CONTINUES TO GROW SLOWLY. THE
REGION SHOWS OCCASIONAL FLUCTUATIONS AND CONTRIBUTED 4 C-CLASS
EVENTS, ALL OF WHICH WERE AT C1 LEVEL.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY LOW, BUT THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT
FROM EITHER OF 8485 OR 8487.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. QUIET LEVELS
PREVAILED FOR MOST OF THE DAY, BUT THE PERIOD FROM 0600-1200 WAS
SOMEWHAT DISTURBED, WITH ACTIVITY ATTAINING UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AN
INCREASE TO ACTIVE IS EXPECTED LATE TOMORROW OR EARLY ON THE 2ND DAY
IN RESPONSE TO ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FILAMENT ERUPTION OF 10
MARCH. MOSTLY ACTIVE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ON THE 2ND DAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR STORM CONDITIONS. MOSTLY
UNSETTLED LEVELS SHOULD RESUME ON THE THIRD DAY.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 MAR a 15 MAR
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 MAR 140 Previsto 13 MAR-15 MAR 140/145/145 Media de 90 Días 12 MAR 142
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 MAR 012/013 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 MAR 012/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 MAR-15 MAR 015/012-020/020-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 MAR a 15 MAR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 05% |
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