Viendo archivo del miércoles, 3 marzo 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Mar 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 062 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 MAR 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8471 (N29W52) PRODUCED A
C2/SF AT 03/0128Z AND A C4/SF AT 03/0345Z. THIS REGION SHOWED SLIGHT
DECAY DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8476 (N18W22) PRODUCED A C1/SF AT
03/0602Z AND A C1/SF AT 03/1654Z. CONTINUED GROWTH WAS OBSERVED IN
THIS REGION AND MINOR MIXED POLARITIES WERE OBSERVED. REGION 8475
(N31W10) WAS RELATIVELY QUIET BUT MINOR MIXING OF POLARITIES WAS
ALSO VISIBLE IN THIS REGION. BEGINNING AT 03/1841Z, THE MAUNA LOA
CORONAGRAPH OBSERVED A CORONAL MASS EJECTION AND ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE
FROM NEAR SW20.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO
MODERATE. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS ARE EXPECTED FROM REGIONS 8471,
8475, AND 8476. EACH OF THESE REGIONS IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS. CONTINUED GROWTH IN REGION 8476 COULD MAKE
IT THE PREDOMINANT FLARE PRODUCING REGION ON THE SUN. OVERALL
ACTIVITY LEVELS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED BEGINNING ON 6 MAR AS
PREVIOUSLY ACTIVE LONGITUDES RETURN TO THE EAST LIMB.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE
PLANETARY K-INDEX REACHED ACTIVE LEVELS IN THE 03/1500-2100Z
INTERVAL. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY DECREASED APPROXIMATELY 100 KM/S
DURING THE PERIOD AND BZ WAS NORTHWARD FOR ALMOST ALL THE PERIOD.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BECAME MODERATE.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
SLIGHT CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS COULD BE EXPERIENCED ON 06 MAR.
BEGINNING THEN, BRIEF PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 MAR a 06 MAR
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 MAR 137 Previsto 04 MAR-06 MAR 140/143/150 Media de 90 Días 03 MAR 143
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 MAR 012/018 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 MAR 010/013 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 MAR-06 MAR 008/013-008/009-010/009
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 MAR a 06 MAR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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