Viendo archivo del sábado, 13 febrero 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Feb 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 044 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 FEB 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED
IN REGION 8462 (N21E21), THE LARGEST BEING A C9/SN AT 13/1611UT.
THIS REGION IS A FAIRLY SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP TO THE NORTHEAST OF
LARGE GROUP 8457 (N15E10). REGION 8457 CONTINUED TO GROW IN WHITE
LIGHT AREA BUT DID NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLARES. REGION 8458
(S22E16), THE OTHER LARGE SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE DISK, HAS CHANGED
LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY. SUBFLARES ALSO OCCURRED IN REGION 8456
(N23W09). NEW REGION 8465 (S33W60) EMERGED ON THE DISK.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. FLARES ARE
POSSIBLE IN REGIONS 8456, 8457, 8458, AND 8462. REGIONS 8457 AND
8462 HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRODUCING AN M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE SINCE 13/1200UT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 FEB a 16 FEB
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 FEB 198 Previsto 14 FEB-16 FEB 200/205/210 Media de 90 Días 13 FEB 142
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 FEB 015/021 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 FEB 007/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 FEB-16 FEB 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 FEB a 16 FEB
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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