Viendo archivo del sábado, 23 enero 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Jan 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 023 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 JAN 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8439 (S23W70) PRODUCED
A C5/1N EVENT AT 23/1514Z. THE REGION ALSO PRODUCED NUMEROUS
SMALLER C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. REGION 8439 AND
8440 (N19W63) SHOWED SOME SLIGHT DECAY. NO NEW REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. AS REGIONS 8439 AND 8440 START APPROACHING THE WEST
LIMB, THEY ARE EACH STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS
EVENT.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE PERIOD. THE
GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS PASSED THE 10 PFU THRESHOLD AT 23/1105Z,
AND REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 14 PFU AT 23/1130Z. SHORTLY THEREAFTER,
THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUXES SLOWLY DECLINED BELOW EVENT
THRESHOLD AT 23/1245Z, BUT REMAINED ENHANCED.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENHANCED.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 JAN a 26 JAN
| Clase M | 50% | 40% | 20% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 JAN 166 Previsto 24 JAN-26 JAN 164/160/158 Media de 90 Días 23 JAN 143
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 JAN 007/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 JAN 014/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 JAN-26 JAN 010/010-008/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 JAN a 26 JAN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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