Viendo archivo del miércoles, 6 enero 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Jan 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 006 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 JAN 1999 -C0RR-IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW WITH ONLY TWO OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C1 X-RAY BURSTS OBSERVED. REGION 8426 (N14W24) APPEARS
TO HAVE STABILIZED AS AN E-TYPE SPOT GROUP COVERING 160 MILLIONTHS
OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. THIS REGION PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES LATE IN
THE PERIOD. REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGION 8426 WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIODS IN HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE. EFFECTS OF THE 3 JAN CORONAL MASS
EJECTION AND THE ROTATION OF A LARGE SOUTHERN CORONAL HOLE INTO A
GEO-EFFECTIVELY FAVORABLE POSITION, WILL LIKELY CAUSE DISTURBED
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 JAN a 09 JAN
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 JAN 126 Previsto 07 JAN-09 JAN 125/125/130 Media de 90 Días 06 JAN 138
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 JAN 006/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 JAN 010/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 JAN-09 JAN 020/025-008/012-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 JAN a 09 JAN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 60% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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