Viendo archivo del lunes, 28 diciembre 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Dec 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 362 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 DEC 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8419 (N26W40)
PRODUCED AN M3/1B FLARE AT 0548UT. THIS GROUP HAS CONTINUED TO GROW
RAPIDLY, NEARLY DOUBLING IN SIZE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE SPOTS
ARE RATHER COMPACT AND SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A MAGNETIC DELTA
CONFIGURATION. THE GROUP ALSO PRODUCED NUMEROUS C-CLASS FLARES
DURING THE REPORTING PERIOD. REGION 8421 (N26E13) PRODUCED AN M1/SF
AT 0521Z. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO BE LARGE AND MAGNETICALLY
COMPLEX, ALTHOUGH REGION 8421'S GROWTH RATE IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THAT
OF REGION 8419.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN M-CLASS FLARE FROM EITHER
REGION 8419 OR 8421. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE
EVENT FROM THESE REGIONS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TOMORROW AND QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE
SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 DEC a 31 DEC
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 DEC 184 Previsto 29 DEC-31 DEC 185/180/175 Media de 90 Días 28 DEC 134
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 DEC 001/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 DEC 003/009 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 DEC-31 DEC 010/011-005/009-005/009
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 DEC a 31 DEC
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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