Viendo archivo del viernes, 2 octubre 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Oct 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 275 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 OCT 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY MINOR B-CLASS
ENHANCEMENTS WERE OBSERVED. REGION 8350 (N20E67) IS A MODERATE SIZE
CLASS E GROUP WITH A BIPOLAR MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. OTHER REGIONS
WERE STABLE OR DECLINING.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
VERY LOW. REGION 8350 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED C-CLASS
EVENTS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. SOME HIGH LATITUDE
SITES EXPERIENCED PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING. SOLAR WIND DATA SHOW A
HIGH SPEED, LOW DENSITY STREAM IN THE VICINITY OF THE EARTH. A RAPID
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED, TOTAL FIELD, AND TEMPERATURE OCCURRED AROUND
02/0700Z. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN ON 30 SEP
CONTINUED TO DECAY DURING THE PERIOD AND FELL BELOW 10 PFU AT
02/0830Z. THE POLAR CAP ABSORPTION EVENT WAS DECLARED OVER AT
02/0300Z. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED
HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR 03-04 OCT. PERIODS OF MAJOR
STORMING ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD
SUBSIDE ON 05 OCT WHEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 OCT a 05 OCT
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 OCT 113 Previsto 03 OCT-05 OCT 111/110/112 Media de 90 Días 02 OCT 129
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 OCT 017/021 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 OCT 018/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 OCT-05 OCT 020/030-015/020-008/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 OCT a 05 OCT
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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