Viendo archivo del lunes, 31 agosto 1998

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Aug 31 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 243 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 AUG 1998

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8307 (N31W76) PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M1/SF FLARE AT 1539Z WHICH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP. THE REGION ALSO PRODUCED TWO C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8319 (N18W54) CONTINUED TO GROW TODAY, BUT NOT AS RAPIDLY AS YESTERDAY. FLARES FROM THIS GROUP OCCURRED LESS FREQUENTLY THAN YESTERDAY AND CONSISTED OF A FEW C-CLASS SUBFLARES. THE GROUP HAS STRONG MAGNETIC FIELDS THAT ARE IN A BETA CONFIGURATION WITH A NORTH-SOUTH INVERSION LINE. REGION 8323 (S21E54) HAS ROTATED INTO VIEW AS A LARGE COMPACT GROUP. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DELTA CONFIGURATION IN A PENUMBRAL AREA NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GROUP. IN SPITE OF THE SIZE AND COMPLEXITY OF THE GROUP IT PRODUCED ONLY A FEW C-CLASS SUBFLARES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE, HOWEVER, FOR A MAJOR FLARE EVENT FROM ANY OF REGIONS 8307, 8319, OR 8323.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS, WITH SOME MINOR STORM PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. A QUIET TO UNSETTLED FIELD BECAME ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM BETWEEN 0600-1200Z. REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SAME HIGH SPEED, LOW DENSITY SOLAR WIND THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 4 DAYS. THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD, HOWEVER, TRANSITIONED TO A MORE CONSISTENTLY SOUTHWARD DIRECTION (MOSTLY FROM -3 TO -7 NT), DURING THE ENHANCED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY INTERVAL. THE FIELD CONTINUED TO BE ACTIVE FROM 1200-1800Z, BUT APPEARED TO BE CALMING SOMEWHAT DURING THE LAST 3 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX CONTINUES TO BE HIGH.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 SEP a 03 SEP
Clase M70%65%60%
Clase X20%20%15%
Protón25%20%15%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       31 AUG 179
  Previsto   01 SEP-03 SEP  180/175/175
  Media de 90 Días        31 AUG 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 AUG  011/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 AUG  015/023
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 SEP-03 SEP  015/015-015/015-015/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 SEP a 03 SEP
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo50%45%40%
Tormenta Menor20%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%40%40%
Tormenta Menor30%30%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%15%15%

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