Viendo archivo del jueves, 20 agosto 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Aug 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 232 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 AUG 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN HIGH WITH A SINGLE X3.9 FLARE
AT 19/2145 FROM REGION 8307 (N32E60). THERE WAS AN ASSOCIATED TYPE
II AND IV SWEEP INDICATING A SHOCK WITH A SPEED OF 1400 KM/S +/-200
KM/S. REGION 8310 (N23E66) AND 8311 (N19E01) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
REGION 8307 HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH ONTO THE DISK THAT A RELIABLE
CLASSIFICATION HAS BEEN PERFORMED. IT IS CLASSIFIED AS A EKO BETA
DELTA WITH 8 SPOTS AND AN AREA OF 440 MILLIONTHS. THE MAGNETIC
CLASSIFICATION STILL NEEDS TO BE REFINED AS THE SPOT MOVES CLOSER TO
CENTER DISK.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. DATA FROM THE
ACE SPACECRAFT INDICATE THAT A SMALL, SLOW SHOCK PASSED BY EARTH
OVER THE LAST 20 HOURS. ENHANCED DENSITY, SLOW BULK SPEED, AND
SEMI-SMOOTH TRANSITION OF BZ FROM NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE CONTRIBUTED
TO THIS CONCLUSION.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH PERIODS OF MINOR STORM AT HIGHER
LATITUDES.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 AUG a 23 AUG
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 AUG 139 Previsto 21 AUG-23 AUG 142/146/150 Media de 90 Días 20 AUG 115
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 AUG 006/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 AUG 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 AUG-23 AUG 025/020-020/018-015/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 AUG a 23 AUG
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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