Viendo archivo del miércoles, 17 junio 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Jun 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 168 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 JUN 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DROPPED TO VERY LOW LEVELS. ALL SPOTTED
REGIONS APPEARED SIMPLE AND STABLE. A SINGLE B-CLASS SUBFLARE
OCCURRED. FURTHER ANALYSIS OF SPACE-BASED CORONAL IMAGES REVEALED A
PARTIAL-HALO CME FOLLOWED THE LONG-DURATION M1 X-RAY FLARE MENTIONED
IN YESTERDAY'S REPORT. HOWEVER, THE CME DID NOT APPEAR TO BE
EARTH-DIRECTED. NEW REGION 8250 (S26E03) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. A GT 10 MEV PROTON FLUX ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRED IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S LONG-DURATION M1 X-RAY FLARE.
THE ENHANCEMENT BEGAN AROUND 16/2300, PEAKED NEAR MID-PERIOD, THEN
GRADUALLY DECLINED.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THE GT 10 MEV PROTON FLUX IS
EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO PRE-ENHANCEMENT LEVELS ON 18 JUNE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 JUN a 20 JUN
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 JUN 101 Previsto 18 JUN-20 JUN 100/100/100 Media de 90 Días 17 JUN 109
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 JUN 005/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 JUN 004/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 JUN-20 JUN 012/012-015/012-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 JUN a 20 JUN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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