Viendo archivo del jueves, 7 mayo 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 May 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 127 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 MAY 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8214 (N26W47)
PRODUCED TWO M-CLASS EVENTS TODAY: AN M2/1B FLARE AT 1116Z AND AN
M1/SF AT 1350Z. THIS GROUP PRODUCED ADDITIONAL SUBFLARE LEVEL
ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE PART OF THE REGION JUST EAST OF THE
LARGEST SPOT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE. TOTAL SUNSPOT AREA FOR
THIS REGION HAS BEEN STEADY OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS SUGGESTING THAT
THE INITIAL GROWTH PHASE HAS ENDED. REGION 8218 (S22E61) HAS ROTATED
MORE CLEARLY INTO VIEW AS A DAO SUNSPOT GROUP AND ALSO PRODUCED
OCCASIONAL SUBFLARES INCLUDING A C4/SF AT 0739Z. REGION 8210
(S15W85) IS ROTATING QUIETLY AROUND THE WEST LIMB.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR CONTINUED M-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM
EITHER OF REGION 8210 OR 8214. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITY FROM THESE REGIONS AS WELL.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A PERIOD OF
MINOR SUBSTORMING WAS SEEN AT HIGH LATITUDES BETWEEN 0900-1330Z. THE
PROTON EVENT AT >= 10 MEV THAT STARTED AT 06/0835Z ENDED AT
07/0140Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX CONTINUES TO BE AT
HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME DISTURBED TOMORROW DUE TO ARRIVAL OF TRANSIENT
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CME EVENTS THAT OCCURRED ON 06 MAY AT 0002Z
AND 0829Z. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE STORM INTERVALS AT HIGH
LATITUDES. THE INTENSE PART OF THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD DIMINISH LATE
TOMORROW, BUT SOME RESIDUAL SUBSTORMING IS LIKELY TO LINGER MIDWAY
THROUGH THE SECOND DAY. UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE BY
THE THIRD DAY.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 MAY a 10 MAY
| Clase M | 75% | 65% | 65% |
| Clase X | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Protón | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 MAY 123 Previsto 08 MAY-10 MAY 120/115/110 Media de 90 Días 07 MAY 107
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 MAY 005/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 MAY 010/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 MAY-10 MAY 045/050-015/025-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 MAY a 10 MAY
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 55% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 65% | 25% | 05% |
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