Viendo archivo del martes, 28 abril 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Apr 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 118 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 APR 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DROPPED PRECIPITOUSLY TO A VERY LOW
LEVEL. ONLY B-CLASS ENHANCEMENTS WERE OBSERVED. REGION 8210 (S17E31)
RETAINED ITS DELTA CONFIGURATION, DEVELOPED ADDITIONAL MIXED
POLARITIES, AND EXHIBITED MINOR GROWTH. H-ALPHA FIBRIL AND VECTOR
MAGNETOGRAPH DATA INDICATE STRONG SHEAR IN THIS REGION WHERE THE
DELTA IS LOCATED. A FILAMENT IN THIS REGION FADED RAPIDLY BETWEEN
28/1851-1914Z. TWO SMALL REGIONS EMERGED ON THE DISK NEAR S30W64 AND
S25E55 AND WERE NUMBERED AS REGIONS 8212 AND 8213 RESPECTIVELY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME LOW TO
MODERATE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8210 RETAINS THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING ANOTHER SMALL X-CLASS EVENT. OLD REGION 8194
WILL BE RETURNING TO THE EAST LIMB NEAR S18 AROUND 01 MAY. THIS
REGION PRODUCED A LONG DURATION M1 FLARE ON 20 APR FROM SEVERAL DAYS
BEYOND THE WEST LIMB THAT RESULTED IN A LARGE SOLAR PROTON EVENT AT
EARTH. ACTIVITY LEVELS MAY INCREASE UPON THE RETURN OF THIS REGION.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES
DECREASED DURING THE PERIOD TO BELOW 400 KM/S INDICATING AN END OF
THE CORONAL HOLE RELATED DISTURBANCE OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE PREDOMINANTLY
HIGH.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL NEAR MIDDAY ON 29 APR WHEN A HALO CME
RELATED DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED FROM THAT TIME AND THROUGH 30 APR.
ISOLATED PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING ARE POSSIBLE. PREDOMINANTLY
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 01 MAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES THE EARTH.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 APR a 01 MAY
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 APR 098 Previsto 29 APR-01 MAY 099/100/103 Media de 90 Días 28 APR 104
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 APR 012/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 APR 010/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 APR-01 MAY 020/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 APR a 01 MAY
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 40% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 05% |
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