Viendo archivo del lunes, 30 marzo 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Mar 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 089 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 MAR 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TODAY'S LARGEST X-RAY EVENT WAS
A C1 AT 1952Z; THERE WERE NO CORRESPONDING OPTICAL SIGNATURES. A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE NORTHERN POLAR CROWN FILAMENT (NEAR
N31W43) DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 1235-1503Z. REGION 8185 (S25W39) IS THE
DOMINANT REGION ON THE DISK IN TERMS OF SUNSPOT AREA AND MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY. NONETHELESS THE REGION WAS QUIET AND STABLE DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
BUT THERE IS A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT
FROM REGION 8185.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOME
MINOR SUBSTORM ACTIVITY WAS NOTED AT HIGH LATITUDES BETWEEN
1400-1700Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS WERE AT HIGH FLUX
LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. THE PROBABILITY FOR ENHANCED ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT
HIGHER THAN USUAL DUE TO THE LONG DURATION M2 ON THE 27TH AND THE
FILAMENT ERUPTION ON THE 29TH. THERE IS EVIDENCE FROM LASCO THAT THE
FILAMENT ERUPTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A CORONAL MASS EJECTION.
GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED
ON THE THIRD DAY.
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 MAR a 02 APR
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 MAR 108 Previsto 31 MAR-02 APR 102/100/098 Media de 90 Días 30 MAR 099
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 MAR 010/017 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 MAR 014/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 MAR-02 APR 015/012-015/010-010/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 MAR a 02 APR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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