Viendo archivo del miércoles, 18 marzo 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Mar 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 077 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 MAR 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE BY VIRTUE OF A SINGLE,
UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY BURST AT 18/1112Z. REGION 8179 (S21W44), NOW
AN EKC SPOT GROUP COVERING 790 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA IN A
BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION, WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TWO C-CLASS
FLARES, A C1.9/SF AT 18/0046Z AND A C1.2/SF AT 18/0300Z. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SPOTTED REGIONS AND THE SOLAR LIMB WERE QUIET AND
RELATIVELY STABLE. NEW REGIONS 8182 (S22W58), A BXO SPOT GROUP, AND
8183 (N22W58), A GROWING CRO SPOT GROUP, WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW TO MODERATE OVER THE COURSE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGION 8179
HAS AN EXCELLENT CHANCE OF CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY, A GOOD CHANCE
OF ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES, AND A SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
X-CLASS EVENT AS THIS REGION BEGINS TO STRESS ITS MAGNETIC GRADIENT.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX EXCEEDED THE ALERT
THRESHOLD AGAIN TODAY.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THEN MOSTLY
QUIET. HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS MAY SEE ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
TO ACTIVE LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK
M1/1B PARTIAL HALO/CME OBSERVED ON 15/1900Z.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 MAR a 21 MAR
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 MAR 127 Previsto 19 MAR-21 MAR 128/130/128 Media de 90 Días 18 MAR 097
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 MAR 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 MAR 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 MAR-21 MAR 010/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 MAR a 21 MAR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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