Viendo archivo del domingo, 16 noviembre 1997
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1997 Nov 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 320 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 NOV 1997IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8108 (N21E42)
PRODUCED AN M1/1N TENFLARE AT 15/2246Z. REGION 8108 ALSO PRODUCED A
SMALL C1/SF FLARE AT 16/0125Z. THIS REGION HAS DECREASED IN OVERALL
SIZE BUT HAS INCREASED ITS NUMBER OF SPOTS. IT IS NOW AN EAI SPOT
GROUP WITH A COMPLEX MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION. TWO UNCORRELATED
C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS WERE ALSO DETECTED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
NEW REGION 8109 (S18E66), A SINGLE HRX SPOT SO FAR, WAS NUMBERED
TODAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE RETURNING REGION 8101.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8108 HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN
BECOME MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH LATITUDES MAY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS A
RESULT OF THE OBSERVED CORONAL MASS EJECTION OF THE EAST SOLAR LIMB
TWO DAYS AGO.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 NOV a 19 NOV
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 NOV 096 Previsto 17 NOV-19 NOV 098/098/096 Media de 90 Días 16 NOV 091
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 NOV 010/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 NOV 009/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 NOV-19 NOV 010/010-015/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 NOV a 19 NOV
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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