Viendo archivo del jueves, 11 septiembre 1997
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1997 Sep 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 254 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 SEP 1997IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT FLARES
OCCURRED. REGIONS 8083 (S28W48), 8084 (N22W13), AND 8085 (S26E15)
HAVE ALL REMAINED RELATIVELY STABLE AND QUIET SINCE YESTERDAY.
REGION 8085 CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST COMPLEX AS A 25-SPOT 'FKI'
BETA-GAMMA GROUP. IN ADDITION, NEW REGION 8086, A SIMPLE 'BXO' BETA
GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS IT ROTATED AROUND THE EAST LIMB.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THE PROBABILITY FOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS REMAINS HIGH
FOR REGIONS 8083, 8084, AND 8085, WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8085.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS, EXCEPT FOR A SINGLE PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS RECORDED AT
MIDDLE LATITUDES DURING THE INTERVAL 10/2100-2400Z. THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX RANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON DAY TWO, AND MOSTLY UNSETTLED ON
DAY THREE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 SEP a 14 SEP
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 SEP 109 Previsto 12 SEP-14 SEP 105/105/102 Media de 90 Días 11 SEP 078
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 SEP 017/019 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 SEP 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 SEP-14 SEP 015/015-015/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 SEP a 14 SEP
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 06% | 06% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 06% | 06% | 01% |
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