Viendo archivo del sábado, 31 mayo 1997
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1997 May 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 151 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 MAY 1997IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A SINGLE B1/SF WITH
ACCOMPANYING 3 DEGREE DSF WAS OBSERVED FROM SPOTLESS REGION 8046
(S26W42) AT 31/1206Z. IN ADDITION, A LARGE 61 DEGREE FILAMENT BEGAN
TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AT APPROXIMATELY 31/1202Z, AND FINALLY
DISAPPEARING AT APPROXIMATLEY 31/1349Z FROM THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
(N43, W36 TO W90). OF THE TWO ACTIVE REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE
VISIBLE DISK, REGION 8047 (N27E19), A 3 SPOT 'CRO' BETA GROUP,
REMAINS STABLE, WHILE 8048 (S29E41), A SIX SPOT 'BXO' BETA, HAS
DISPLAYED GROWTH AND INCREASED ADF AND AFS ACTIVITY SINCE FORMING
YESTERDAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW, WITH A COMBINED 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A C-CLASS EVENT FROM
REGIONS 8047 AND 8048.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS,
WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH CONTINUED
PERIODS OF ISOLATED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. ACTIVITY ON DAY THREE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS AS AN INITIAL RESPONSE TO
TODAY'S LARGE DSF EVENT. SUSTAINED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON DAY FOUR.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 JUN a 03 JUN
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 MAY 073 Previsto 01 JUN-03 JUN 076/076/076 Media de 90 Días 31 MAY 074
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 MAY 007/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 MAY 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 JUN-03 JUN 005/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 JUN a 03 JUN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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