Viendo archivo del jueves, 1 agosto 1996
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1996 Aug 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 214 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 AUG 1996IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. REGION 7981
(S09E10) CONTINUED TO PRODUCE MINOR B-CLASS SUBFLARES. X-RAY
IMAGES AFTER 01/1400Z SHOW A LARGE LOOP HAD FORMED IN THIS
REGION WITH HIGH INCLINATION TOWARD THE SOUTH POLE. OVERALL,
REGION 7981 IS IN SLOW DECAY. THE DARK EUV CORONAL HOLE LIKE
FEATURE MENTIONED ON 31 JUL WAS AN ARTIFACT.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
AT A VERY LOW LEVEL. AN ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION
7981 REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. RECENT SOLAR
WIND DATA INDICATE A CORONAL HOLE STREAM IS IMPACTING THE
EARTH. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
BECAME HIGH NEAR 01/1615Z IN RESPONSE TO THIS HIGH SPEED
STREAM.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 02-04 AUG.
ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING 02-03 AUG.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES SHOULD REMAIN HIGH FOR AT LEAST
02-04 AUG.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 AUG a 04 AUG
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 AUG 080 Previsto 02 AUG-04 AUG 080/080/079 Media de 90 Días 01 AUG 070
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 JUL 019/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 AUG 012/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 AUG-04 AUG 012/015-010/010-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 AUG a 04 AUG
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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