Visualització de l'arxiu de diumenge, 27 d’abril 2003

Informe d'activitat solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe d'activitat Geofísica-Solar 2003 Apr 27 2200 UTC
Preparat pel SWPC NOAA © i processat per SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunt segons USAF / NOAA d’activitat Solar i Geofísica

SDF número 117 emès a 2200Z el Apr 27 2003

IA. Anàlisi de les regions actives solars i de l'activitat de 2100Z-26 a 2100Z-27

Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region 338 (N18W85) produced an M2.5/Sf at 26/2340Z and an M1.7/Sf at 27/1532Z which were the largest flares of the period. This region was again responsible for the vast majority of the activity observed today. Proximity to the west limb hinders analysis of changes in magnetic structure today. Region 344 (N16W00) showed slight growth today and retains a beta-gamma-delta structure. The weak delta complex is evident in the northwestern quadrant of the dominant trailing spot. Region 337 (S14W40) underwent rapid growth during the period adding many additional spots to the south of the main body of this group. This region also depicts a beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. A 34 degree solar filament erupted yesterday at approximately 26/2000Z which resulted in a streamer CME that does not appear as though it will become geoeffective No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Previsió d'activitat solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 338 has begun to transit the disk but remains capable of producing a major flare.
IIA. Resum d'activitat geofísica del 2100Z-26 al 2100Z-27
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. An increase of 150 km/s in the solar wind speed during the period is believed to be the result of a recurrent coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Previsió d'activitat geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through the interval. High latitude minor storm conditions are possible on day one and into day two due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Probabilitats d’esdeveniments de les Apr del 28 a les Apr del 30
Classe M70%50%50%
Classe X15%10%05%
Protó05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton Flux de 10,7 cm
  Observat       27 Apr 154
  Predit   28 Apr-30 Apr  155/160/155
  Mitjana de 90 dies        27 Apr 127
V. Índexs geomagnètics A
  Observat Afr/Ap 26 Apr  009/015
  Estimat     Afr/Ap 27 Apr  012/012
  Predit    Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr  015/015-012/015-012/015
VI. Probabilitats d’activitat geomagnètica del 28 Apr al 30 Apr
A. Latituds mitjanes
Actiu35%30%25%
Tempesta menor20%15%10%
Tempesta major-severa10%05%05%
B. Latituds altes
Actiu45%35%30%
Tempesta menor30%25%15%
Tempesta major-severa15%10%05%

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