Visualització de l'arxiu de dissabte, 26 d’abril 2003

Informe d'activitat solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe d'activitat Geofísica-Solar 2003 Apr 26 2200 UTC
Preparat pel SWPC NOAA © i processat per SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunt segons USAF / NOAA d’activitat Solar i Geofísica

SDF número 116 emès a 2200Z el Apr 26 2003

IA. Anàlisi de les regions actives solars i de l'activitat de 2100Z-25 a 2100Z-26

Solar activity increased to high levels. An abundance of activity was observed today, most of which occurred in Region 338 (N18W71). Region 338 produced a very impulsive M7.0 x-ray flare at 26/0807Z. This region also produced an M2.1/1f flare at 26/0058Z and an M2.1/Sn flare at 26/0306Z along with multiple C-class events. The delta magnetic complex remains intact and penumbral coverage appears to be oscillating with this regions flare production. Region 344 (N16E13) has yet to produce any flare activity although the white-light penumbral coverage and the magnetic complexity of this region have shown rapid growth during the past 24 hours. Yesterday, this region was a simple beta complex which has since developed into a beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. Region 337 (S14W26) was quiescent through most of the period. Regions 347 (S20E36), 348 (S36E58), and 349 (S14E60) were newly numbered today.
IB. Previsió d'activitat solar
Activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 338 remains capable of producing an isolated major flare.
IIA. Resum d'activitat geofísica del 2100Z-25 al 2100Z-26
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Influences from yesterdays favorably positioned coronal hole have waned as the solar wind speed has dropped to approximately 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels today.
IIB. Previsió d'activitat geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels. Minor storm conditions are possible with the onset of a favorably positioned coronal hole on days one and two. Elevated field levels are possible through the interval due to weak transient passages resulting from the flare activity of the past several days.
III. Probabilitats d’esdeveniments de les Apr del 27 a les Apr del 29
Classe M70%70%50%
Classe X15%15%05%
Protó05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton Flux de 10,7 cm
  Observat       26 Apr 144
  Predit   27 Apr-29 Apr  150/145/140
  Mitjana de 90 dies        26 Apr 126
V. Índexs geomagnètics A
  Observat Afr/Ap 25 Apr  019/032
  Estimat     Afr/Ap 26 Apr  010/015
  Predit    Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr  020/025-015/020-012/015
VI. Probabilitats d’activitat geomagnètica del 27 Apr al 29 Apr
A. Latituds mitjanes
Actiu35%30%25%
Tempesta menor20%15%15%
Tempesta major-severa10%05%05%
B. Latituds altes
Actiu40%35%30%
Tempesta menor30%20%10%
Tempesta major-severa15%10%05%

All times in UTC

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