Visualització de l'arxiu de divendres, 19 d’abril 2002
Informe d'activitat solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe d'activitat Geofísica-Solar 2002 Apr 19 2200 UTCPreparat pel SWPC NOAA © i processat per SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunt segons USAF / NOAA d’activitat Solar i Geofísica
SDF número 109 emès a 2200Z el Apr 19 2002IA. Anàlisi de les regions actives solars i de l'activitat de 2100Z-18 a 2100Z-19 Solar activity was low. Region 9906 (S14W66) produced
several C-class subflares during the past day. The largest was a
C3/Sf at 19/1822 UTC. This region continues to decay slowly but
retains appreciable size and magnetic complexity. New Regions 9913
(S15E23) and 9914 (N04E72) were numbered.
IB. Previsió d'activitat solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9906 appears to be capable of M-class activity,
including an isolated major flare.
IIA. Resum d'activitat geofísica del 2100Z-18 al 2100Z-19
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm. A shock
was observed at ACE at 19/0804 UTC and was followed by an SI at
ground magnetometers (36 nT at Boulder) at 19/0836 UTC. This shock
is believed to be associated with the LDE M2/CME that occurred on 17
April.
IIB. Previsió d'activitat geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to major storm levels for about the next 12
hours as the current CME passes. The field is expected to return to
quiet to unsettled conditions by the end of the 3-day forecast
period. A greater than 10 MeV proton event is possible if Region
9906 produces a major flare.
III. Probabilitats d’esdeveniments de les Apr del 20 a les Apr del 22
| Classe M | 50% | 30% | 30% |
| Classe X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Protó | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton Flux de 10,7 cm
Observat 19 Apr 180 Predit 20 Apr-22 Apr 175/170/170 Mitjana de 90 dies 19 Apr 201
V. Índexs geomagnètics A
Observat Afr/Ap 18 Apr 035/054 Estimat Afr/Ap 19 Apr 030/040 Predit Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr 030/040-012/015-008/015
VI. Probabilitats d’activitat geomagnètica del 20 Apr al 22 Apr
| A. Latituds mitjanes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actiu | 60% | 30% | 10% |
| Tempesta menor | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempesta major-severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latituds altes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actiu | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| Tempesta menor | 40% | 15% | 05% |
| Tempesta major-severa | 15% | 10% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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