Visualització de l'arxiu de dijous, 18 d’abril 2002
Informe d'activitat solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe d'activitat Geofísica-Solar 2002 Apr 18 2200 UTCPreparat pel SWPC NOAA © i processat per SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunt segons USAF / NOAA d’activitat Solar i Geofísica
SDF número 108 emès a 2200Z el Apr 18 2002IA. Anàlisi de les regions actives solars i de l'activitat de 2100Z-17 a 2100Z-18 Solar activity was low. Only C-class flares occurred
over the past 24 hours. Some of these flares did not have an obvious
source on the visible disk and may have originated from beyond the
limb. Region 9906 (S14W55) remains large and complex but has shown
some sunspot decay and magnetic simplification. New Regions 9911
(S13E23) and 9912 (N11E28) were numbered.
IB. Previsió d'activitat solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class activity is expected in Region 9906. A major flare
in this region remains a possibility.
IIA. Resum d'activitat geofísica del 2100Z-17 al 2100Z-18
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels in
response to the CME that impacted the Earth early yesterday. ACE
solar wind information suggests that this CME has passed. The
geomagnetic field is currently at active levels. Yesterday's greater
than 10 MeV proton event has ended: start 17/1530 UTC, maximum flux
(24 pfu) 17/1540 UTC, and end 18/0035 UTC.
IIB. Previsió d'activitat geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels through the end of 18
April UTC. Another CME is expected to impact the Earth early on 19
April UTC from an LDE/CME that occurred on 17 April. Minor to major
storm conditions are possible for the 24-48 hours following this
CME's arrival. Geomagnetic activity is expected to decline to
unsettled to active levels by the end of the 3-day forecast period.
Another greater than 10 MeV proton event is possible if Region 9906
generates a major flare.
III. Probabilitats d’esdeveniments de les Apr del 19 a les Apr del 21
| Classe M | 75% | 50% | 40% |
| Classe X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Protó | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton Flux de 10,7 cm
Observat 18 Apr 188 Predit 19 Apr-21 Apr 180/175/170 Mitjana de 90 dies 18 Apr 201
V. Índexs geomagnètics A
Observat Afr/Ap 17 Apr 027/041 Estimat Afr/Ap 18 Apr 045/050 Predit Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr 040/040-030/050-012/020
VI. Probabilitats d’activitat geomagnètica del 19 Apr al 21 Apr
| A. Latituds mitjanes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actiu | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Tempesta menor | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempesta major-severa | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latituds altes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actiu | 35% | 50% | 30% |
| Tempesta menor | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempesta major-severa | 25% | 15% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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dimecres, 29 de maig 2024
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Let's compare! Halloween 2003 VS May 2024 Solar Storms!
Últims missatges del fòrum
Filaments and prominences 163AR 3679- AR 3683 4AR 3697 188Incoming Active Regions 461Unproven theories 555
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Fets del temps al espai
| Última Flamarada-X | 2024/05/31 | X1.1 |
| Última Flamarada-M | 2024/05/31 | M1.0 |
| Última tempesta geomagnètica | 2024/05/17 | Kp6 (G2) |
| Dies sense taques | |
|---|---|
| Últim dia sense taques | 2022/06/08 |
| Número mensual mitjà de taques solars | |
|---|---|
| d’abril 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| Last 30 days | 147.7 +4.8 |