Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 February 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 06 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. A new region emerged at a
rapid pace today and was numbered Region 1045 (N24E15). The region
produced several C-class events and a M2/Sn event at 06/1859Z. The
region has grown to around 290 millionths of white light area
coverage with a magnetic beta-gamma configuration and a possible
delta magnetic configuration within its interior spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with isolated active conditions, and a
slight chance for isolated minor storming for the next three days
(07-09 February). The increase in activity is expected due to CME
activity from 02-03 February and a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Feb 088 Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 090/092/094 90 Day Mean 06 Feb 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 000/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 012/012-012/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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