Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2024 May 17 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Newly numbered AR3685 (S13E64, Dso/beta-gamma) produced an M1.0 flare at 16/0804 UTC, which was the largest of the period, as it began to rotate into view on the eastern limb. Region 3679 (S10E18, Eso/beta-gamma) grew in overall size while becoming somewhat less magnetically complex, losing the weak delta signature in its leading penumbra. This active region was responsible for a hand full of C-class flares, the largest of which was a C5.0 at 16/0634 UTC. Region 3672 (N18W37, Cao/beta) showed signs of evolution as it gained new leading spots and produced a C4.0 flare at 16/0506 UTC. Region 3674 (S12W03, Cso/beta) underwent evolution as well, gaining pores and trailing spots, and was the culprit of a C3.2 flare at 16/1252 UTC. An erupting filament structure was observed in GONG HA imagery beginning at approximately 16/1500 UTC near N10W32. An apparent, subsequent CME can be seen first in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery just before 16/1800 UTC. Analysis and modeling of this event is currently underway to determine any Earth-directed component.

Forecast

Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate levels with a chance for M-class flare activity (R1-2/Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) and a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare event (R3 Strong radio blackouts) through 19 May.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels with a peak flux of 22.3 pfu at 16/1115 UTC. The 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

Forecast

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to gradually return to near background levels over the course of 17 May and remain there through the forecast period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 19 May.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind parameters were indicative of CME influences, likely from the parting shot on the western limb from AR3664 back on 13 May. Total field reached a peak of 17 nT at approximately 16/0611 UTC. During this time, the Bz component underwent a sustained southward deflection of -6 to -13 nT. Solar wind speeds also increased slightly during this time to around 500 km/s before gradually decreasing to ~385 km/s. Phi became variable beginning around 16/0705 UTC and became predominantly negative after 16/1355 UTC.

Forecast

An additional enhancement is likely on 17 May due to the arrival of glancing influences of a CME from 14 May. Solar wind parameters are expected to slowly relax over the course of 18 May before yet another enhancement is likely, due to glancing influences of a CME from 15 May.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field reached G2 (Moderate) storm levels.

Forecast

Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 17 May due to glancing CME effects from the 14 May CME. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 18 May as any lingering effects weaken. Unsettled to active conditions are expected once again on 19 May, this time due to glancing CME effects from the 15 May CME. It should be noted that there is a chance for isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods on 17 and 19 May due to any stronger than anticipated CME effects.