3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2024 May 17 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA scale G2).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 17-May 19 2024 is 4 (.00below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             May 17       May 18       May 19
00-03UT       3.67         2.67         2.33     
03-06UT       4.00         2.33         3.00     
06-09UT       3.00         2.67         4.00     
09-12UT       2.33         1.67         4.00     
12-15UT       2.33         2.00         2.67     
15-18UT       2.33         1.67         2.33     
18-21UT       2.67         1.67         2.00     
21-00UT       3.00         2.33         2.67     

Rationale

No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 17-May 19 2024

              May 17  May 18  May 19
S1 or greater   25%      5%      5%

Rationale

S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate) conditions are at a chance 17 May due to the flare potential from now departed Region 3664. Probabilities drop to a nominal levels on 18-19 May from the remaining active regions on the Suns visible disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 16 2024 0804 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 17-May 19 2024

              May 17        May 18        May 19
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale

A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) conditions and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) exist 17-19 May.