Прогноз Космічної Погоди - Обговорення

Випущено: 2024 Sep 13 1230 UTC
Надано Міністерством торгівлі США, NOAA, Центром прогнозування космічної погоди і опрацьовано SpaceWeatherLive.com

Сонячна активність

Підсумок за добу

Solar activity remained at high levels following multiple M-class flares, the largest of which was a M6.8 flare at 12/1443 UTC from AR 3811 as it exited the western limb. Region 3814 (N16W43, Cso/beta-gamma) produced a M2.9 flare at 13/0837 UTC as it appeared to show slight signs of decay. Region 3822 (N14W31, Dai/beta) appeared to be relatively stable and 3824 (S05E01, Dsi/beta-gamma) grew in overall length while remaining relatively quiet. Region 3825 (S18E63, Dac/beta-gamma-delta) was numbered this period as it rotated onto the visible disk, and was responsible for a M1.6 flare at 12/1506 UTC. Other notable activity included a M5.4 flare at 13/0656 UTC that originated from just beyond the southwest limb. Two CMEs of note were observed this period. The first emerged from just beyond the eastern limb, first observable in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery along a streamer at approximately 12/2024 UTC. The second appears to have originated from just beyond the southwestern limb and is first observable in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately 13/0136 UTC. Neither of these events are expected to have an Earth-directed component at this time.

Прогноз

Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate to high levels on 13 Sep as additional R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare activity are expected. M-class flare activity is anticipated to decrease somewhat for 14-15 Sep as multiple regions exit and rotate beyond the western limb, leaving the probability for isolated R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts in the likely category.

Заряджені Частинки

Підсумок за добу

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued to be slightly elevated though well below the warning threshold.

Прогноз

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 15 Sep. A slight chance for the 10 MeV proton flux to reach the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm level will remain on 13 Sep as multiple regions move beyond the western limb. Probabilities decrease thereafter (14-15 Sep).

Сонячний Вітер

Підсумок за добу

Solar wind parameters indicated the arrival of what is likely the 10 Sep CME at 12/0300 UTC. Total field gradually increased to a maximum of 30 nT. The Bz component deflected mostly southward for prolonged periods reaching -25 nT. Solar wind speed increased throughout the period and reached 600 km/s before easing to ~465-500 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive.

Прогноз

Enhanced conditions are expected through 13 Sep as CME influence persists. An additional enhancement is likely by late 13 Sep and will persist through 14 Sep with the possible arrival of the 11 Sep CME. A CH HSS is expected to rotate into geoeffective position on 15 Sep, continuing the enhanced solar wind environment trend.

Геопростір

Підсумок за добу

The geomagnetic field reached G3 (Strong) storm levels due to CME influences.

Прогноз

Active to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely through 13 Sep as CME effects persist. Active to G1 levels are likely again on 14 Sep with the arrival of the 11 Sep CME. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 15 Sep due to CH HSS influences.