Прогноз Космічної Погоди - Обговорення

Випущено: 2023 Dec 01 1230 UTC
Надано Міністерством торгівлі США, NOAA, Центром прогнозування космічної погоди і опрацьовано SpaceWeatherLive.com

Сонячна активність

Підсумок за добу

Solar activity reached moderate levels with an M1 flare at 01/0439 UTC from Region 3502 (N15W72, Cso/beta). Region 3500 (S18W36, Ekc/beta-gamma) remained moderately complex with a mixed magnetic configuration but underwent some decay. The region only produced a few C-class flares. All other regions underwent minor decay and were mostly inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the previous 24 hours.

Прогноз

Solar activity is expected to remain low with a chance of M-class flares and a slight chance of an isolated X-class flare 01-03 Dec primarily due to the flare probability of Region 3500.

Заряджені Частинки

Підсумок за добу

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal to moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background.

Прогноз

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 01-03 Dec. There is a slight chance of a S1 (Minor) event all three days due to the potential from Region 3500.

Сонячний Вітер

Підсумок за добу

Solar wind parameters were indicative of ambient conditions for the first half of the period with enhanced conditions during the latter half due to CME influences. Total field was near 5 nT until near 30/2330 UTC when it increased to 15 nT. A further increase to as high as 27 nT was observed near 01/0900 UTC. Bz underwent several southward deviations and reached a maximum of -23 nT at 01/0947 UTC. Solar wind speeds were basically nominal until the later shock and reached ~550 km/s. Total field was predominantly positive.

Прогноз

The solar wind field is expected to remain enhanced on through 02 Dec due to persistent CME influence. A near background solar wind is expected to return on 03 Dec.

Геопростір

Підсумок за добу

The geomagnetic field reached G3 (Strong) storm levels during the 01/0900-1200 UTC period due to the aforementioned CME influence.

Прогноз

Geomagnetic storm levels are expected to continue through 01 Dec, with G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) levels anticipated due to continued CME influences. Active to G1 conditions are likely on 02 Dec. Mainly quiet to unsettled levels are expected 03 Dec as CME effects wane.