Viewing archive of tisdag, 23 juni 2015
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2015 Jun 23 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 174 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 23 Jun 2015IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
23/1219Z from Region 2371 (N12W28). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Jun, 25 Jun, 26 Jun).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 1054 km/s at 23/1051Z. Total IMF reached 38 nT at 22/2102Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -25 nT at 23/0135Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 529
pfu at 22/2130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
were contaminated by proton flux and therefore unreliable.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (24 Jun), minor
storm to severe storm levels on day two (25 Jun) and unsettled to minor
storm levels on day three (26 Jun). Protons are expected to cross
threshold on days one and two (24 Jun, 25 Jun) and are expected to cross
threshold on day three (26 Jun).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 24 Jun till 26 Jun
| M-klass | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| X-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 90% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 23 Jun 116 Prognoserat 24 Jun-26 Jun 115/110/110 90 Day Mean 23 Jun 127
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 22 Jun 057/074 Förväntat Afr/Ap 23 Jun 044/083 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 028/040-048/080-020/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 24 Jun till 26 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 25% | 40% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 79% | 85% | 65% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/05/05 | X1.2 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/05/05 | M2.2 |
| Senaste geomagnetiska stormen | 2024/05/02 | Kp7- (G3) |
| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
| Månadsvis faktiskt antal solfläckar | |
|---|---|
| april 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| Last 30 days | 153.8 +59.7 |