Viewing archive of onsdag, 29 oktober 2014
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2014 Oct 29 2245 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 302 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 29 Oct 2014IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
29/1433Z from Region 2192 (S12W84). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (30 Oct) and likely to be
low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on day two (31 Oct) and likely to be low with a slight chance for
an M-class flare on day three (01 Nov).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
454 km/s at 28/2128Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 28/2143Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/2349Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1466 pfu.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (30 Oct) and
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (31 Oct).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 30 Oct till 01 Nov
| M-klass | 65% | 25% | 10% |
| X-klass | 35% | 20% | 05% |
| Proton | 35% | 20% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 29 Oct 150 Prognoserat 30 Oct-01 Nov 145/135/135 90 Day Mean 29 Oct 142
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 28 Oct 011/011 Förväntat Afr/Ap 29 Oct 008/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 011/012-008/008-007/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 30 Oct till 01 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 40% | 35% | 25% |
Senaste nytt
måndag, 22 april 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
lördag, 23 mars 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
onsdag, 20 mars 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Senaste inläggen
ionosphere D detection 12Filaments and prominences 67Unspecified geomagnetic activity 959Latest SC25 Predictions 105AR3654 44
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/05/01 | M1.9 |
| Senaste geomagnetiska stormen | 2024/04/26 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
| Månadsvis faktiskt antal solfläckar | |
|---|---|
| mars 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |
| Last 30 days | 148.1 +49.1 |