Viewing archive of tisdag, 30 september 2014
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2014 Sep 30 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 273 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 30 Sep 2014IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
30/0444Z from Region 2173 (S14W66). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (01 Oct,
02 Oct) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (03 Oct).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
415 km/s at 30/2047Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 30/0240Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 30/0244Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 862 pfu.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (01 Oct, 02 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (03 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (01 Oct) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (02 Oct).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 01 Oct till 03 Oct
| M-klass | 65% | 55% | 45% |
| X-klass | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 30 Sep 162 Prognoserat 01 Oct-03 Oct 155/150/145 90 Day Mean 30 Sep 135
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 29 Sep 007/009 Förväntat Afr/Ap 30 Sep 015/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 007/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 01 Oct till 03 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 35% | 25% | 20% |
Senaste nytt
måndag, 22 april 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
lördag, 23 mars 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
onsdag, 20 mars 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Senaste inläggen
Unspecified geomagnetic activity 949AR3654 9Changelog/Featurelog 154What are these long and thin eruptions? 9IMF - BT strength 8
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/04/27 | M2.1 |
| Senaste geomagnetiska stormen | 2024/04/26 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
| Månadsvis faktiskt antal solfläckar | |
|---|---|
| mars 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |
| Last 30 days | 136.8 +28.6 |