Viewing archive of torsdag, 9 januari 2014
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2014 Jan 09 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 9 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 09 Jan 2014IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
09/0216Z from Region 1946 (N09W35). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11
Jan, 12 Jan).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
527 km/s at 09/1947Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 09/2008Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 09/0114Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1026 pfu at
09/0340Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3073 pfu.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (10 Jan), unsettled
to active levels on day two (11 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day
three (12 Jan). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (10
Jan), are expected to cross threshold on day two (11 Jan) and are likely
to cross threshold on day three (12 Jan).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 10 Jan till 12 Jan
| M-klass | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| X-klass | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 99% | 90% | 70% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 09 Jan 184 Prognoserat 10 Jan-12 Jan 180/180/180 90 Day Mean 09 Jan 152
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 08 Jan 008/006 Förväntat Afr/Ap 09 Jan 015/023 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 025/040-017/015-012/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 10 Jan till 12 Jan
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 45% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 50% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 30% | 35% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 85% | 50% | 45% |
Senaste nytt
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/04/27 | M3.0 |
| Senaste geomagnetiska stormen | 2024/04/26 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
| Månadsvis faktiskt antal solfläckar | |
|---|---|
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