Viewing archive of torsdag, 20 september 2012

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Sep 20 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 264 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 20 Sep 2012

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1574 (S22W70) produced a C1/Sf flare at 20/1139Z. Over the period, the region grew from a simple unipolar spot to a 4 spot bipolar group. All other spotted regions indicated little change. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three days (21 - 23 September).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to unsettled levels with a period of active conditions observed between 19/2100 - 2400Z. The period began with wind speeds, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, steady at 400 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly south at about -10 nT. At about 19/2300Z, wind speed and temperature indicated slight increases while IMF Bz began fluctuating between +8 to -6 nT. By about 20/0100Z, the phi angle changed from a positive (away) to a negative (toward) orientation. These changes were all indicative of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a coronal hole high speed stream. By the end of the period, wind velocities were steady at about 575 km/s while IMF Bz did not vary much beyond +/- 2 nT.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active intervals for days one and two (21 - 22 September) as a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) remains geoeffective. By day three (23 September), mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected as CH HSS effects wane.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 21 Sep till 23 Sep
M-klass15%15%15%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       20 Sep 117
  Prognoserat   21 Sep-23 Sep  115/115/120
  90 Day Mean        20 Sep 122
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 19 Sep  013/014
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 20 Sep  010/012
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep  008/012-009/012-008/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 21 Sep till 23 Sep
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%30%20%
Små stormförhållanden05%05%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt35%35%25%
Små stormförhållanden10%10%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%

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