Viewing archive of måndag, 10 september 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Sep 10 2325 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 254 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 10 Sep 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
1564 (S12W69) produced an M1 flare at 09/2236Z. Regions 1564 and
1567 (N16E14) produced occasional C-class flares. A filament
eruption was observed in SDO 304 imagery at approximately 1000Z from
the southwest quadrant. An associated CME was observed over the
south pole and had an estimated plane of sky speed of 420 km/s.
This CME is not expected to be geoeffective at this time, pending
further analysis. Newly numbered Region 1569 (S11E65) rotated onto
the disk as an A-type Hax spot group, although additional trailer
spots appeared to be rotating into view.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare for the next three days
(11-13 September).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels throughout the period.
A solar sector boundary crossing was observed at the ACE spacecraft
at about 1300Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels with a chance for unsettled levels
during the next three days (11-13 September).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 11 Sep till 13 Sep
| M-klass | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 10 Sep 111 Prognoserat 11 Sep-13 Sep 115/110/105 90 Day Mean 10 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 09 Sep 006/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 10 Sep 005/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 007/005-007/007-007/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 11 Sep till 13 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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