Viewing archive of onsdag, 5 september 2012

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Sep 05 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 249 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 05 Sep 2012

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1564 (S14E01 - Esi/beta-gamma) produced occasional C-class flares including a C6 at 05/0347Z and a C7/Sn at 05/0806Z, neither of which were associated with significant radio emission. Region 1564 showed gradual spot and penumbral decay during the period, but retained a beta-gamma configuration due to polarity mixing in the vicinity of its intermediate spots. Region 1560 (N04W58 - Eai/beta-gamma-delta) showed minor spot loss in its trailer portion during the period. It retained a delta within its intermediate spots, but the delta appeared to be dissipating. The remaining spotted region were unremarkable. No new regions were numbered. No Earth-directed CME activity occurred during the period.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (06 - 08 September) with a chance for an isolated M-class flare during days 1 - 2.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm levels with a brief period of severe storm levels at high latitudes. An interplanetary shock passed the ACE spacecraft at 04/2203Z indicating the arrival of the CMEs observed on 02 September. Field activity increased to major storm levels during 05/0000 - 0300Z following the shock, then decreased to minor storm levels during 05/0300 - 0600Z. A further decrease to active levels occurred during 05/0300 - 0900Z. Quiet to unsettled levels occurred during the rest of the period with active to minor storm levels detected at high latitudes.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (06 - 08 September) with a chance for active levels on day 1 due to possible weak coronal hole high-speed stream effects.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 06 Sep till 08 Sep
M-klass25%25%20%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       05 Sep 133
  Prognoserat   06 Sep-08 Sep  130/130/125
  90 Day Mean        05 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 04 Sep  014/016
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 05 Sep  021/029
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep  008/010-007/008-007/007
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 06 Sep till 08 Sep
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt15%15%10%
Små stormförhållanden05%01%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt15%15%20%
Små stormförhållanden20%25%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden25%20%10%

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