Viewing archive of söndag, 2 september 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Sep 02 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 246 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 02 Sep 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the period
was a C5/SN flare at 1810Z from Region 1560 (N03W17). This region
remains the largest and most magnetically complex with a beta-gamma
configuration. Two potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed
with estimated speeds of 570 and 530 km/s, and a Type IV radio sweep
occurred at 0435Z.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet to unsettled levels. A
greater than 10 MeV proton event, associated with the disappearing
filament on 31 August, began at 01/1335Z, reached a maximum flux of
60 pfu at 02/0850Z, and is currently above threshold at the time of
this report.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to increase to minor storm levels with a chance for major
storm levels on 3 September with the arrival of the 31 August CME,
and high latitudes have a chance of reaching severe storm levels. On
days 2 and 3 (4-5 September), activity is expected to decrease to
mostly unsettled conditions with continuing CME effects. The two
CMEs observed today along with a coronal hole high speed stream are
expected to arrive late on day 3 (5 September).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 03 Sep till 05 Sep
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 75% | 40% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 02 Sep 142 Prognoserat 03 Sep-05 Sep 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 02 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 01 Sep 008/007 Förväntat Afr/Ap 02 Sep 010/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 020/030-014/015-010/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 03 Sep till 05 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 40% | 20% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 40% | 10% | 20% |
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