Viewing archive of fredag, 27 juli 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Jul 27 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 209 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 27 Jul 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Sympathetic activity
between Regions 1530 (S19E28) and 1532 (S20E53) produced a M2/1f
x-ray event at 1726Z on 27 July. The event was accompanied by a
Tenflare (340 sfu), type II and IV radio sweeps. The type II was
reported with an estimated speed of 2099 km/s, however a radial
speed estimate of the CME obtained from STEREO B coronagraph was
measured near 500 km/s. Initial analysis suggests that the transient
will not likely have a geoeffective trajectory. New Region 1533
(S28E18) developed today and was numbered. There were some
preliminary observations indicating a new region (not yet numbered)
rotating onto the disk in the southern hemisphere, behind Region
1532.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next 3 days (28-30 July).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on day 1 (28 July) as the onset of
coronal hole (CH) high speed stream effects are forecasted. The
field should remain mostly unsettled on day 2 (29 July) with
possible nighttime active levels from substorms. Conditions should
recover from unsettled to active levels to mostly quiet on day 3 (30
July) as CH effects wane.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 28 Jul till 30 Jul
| M-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 27 Jul 123 Prognoserat 28 Jul-30 Jul 125/130/135 90 Day Mean 27 Jul 125
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 26 Jul 003/003 Förväntat Afr/Ap 27 Jul 004/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul 008/012-012/015-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 28 Jul till 30 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 45% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 20% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 65% | 30% |
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