Viewing archive of måndag, 23 juli 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Jul 23 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 205 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 23 Jul 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. Newly numbered Regions 1527
(N27E64) and 1529 (S12E71) produced the only C-class flares for the
period: a C2/1f flare at 23/1127Z and a C1 flare at 23/1700Z,
respectively. New Region 1528 (N17E67) was also numbered. Two CMEs
were observed overnight in LASCO C2 imagery. The first was
associated with a filament eruption beyond the northwest limb
beginning at 22/1248Z and the second, an asymmetric full-halo
associated with flare activity from old Region 1520 (S16, L=086)
approximately 40 degrees beyond the west limb beginning at 23/0236Z.
These CMEs are not expected to disturb the geomagnetic field.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for C-class events for the forecast
period (24 - 26 July).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with intervals
of active to minor storm conditions observed at high latitudes
between 23/1200 - 1800Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit exceeded the 10 pfu threshold at 23/1545Z. A
maximum of 12 pfu was reached at 23/1700Z with flux levels still
above threshold as of this report. An enhancement of the greater
than 100 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was on-going as
well. The proton event is likely associated with flare activity
from old Region 1520 that occurred at approximately 23/0235Z. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
periods on day 1 (24 July) due to effects from a coronal hole high
speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day 2
(25 July) as effects begin to diminish. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected on day 3 (26 July).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 24 Jul till 26 Jul
| M-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 30% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 23 Jul 097 Prognoserat 24 Jul-26 Jul 100/105/110 90 Day Mean 23 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 22 Jul 009/009 Förväntat Afr/Ap 23 Jul 007/008 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 007/015-007/010-006/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 24 Jul till 26 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 35% | 05% | 05% |
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