Viewing archive of onsdag, 18 juli 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Jul 18 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 200 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 18 Jul 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z Solar Activity was low. Region 1520 (S17W89), set to
rotate off the west limb today, produced all of todays flare
activity, consisting of two C3 class events. Region 1523 (S28W51)
showed slight decay, while the remaining Regions 1524 (S16E37) and
newly numbered 1525 (S22E36) were quiet and stable. No Earth
directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar Activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class event for the next 24 hours
until 1520 rotates further around west limb. Days two and three are
expected to be low.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at generally quiet levels for the
entire period. A greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at
17/1715Z continued throughout the period. The peak value observed
was 136 PFU at 18/0600Z after which the flux levels were generally
decreasing. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days. The greater than 10
MeV proton event is expected to end on 19 July.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 19 Jul till 21 Jul
| M-klass | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| X-klass | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 80% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 18 Jul 110 Prognoserat 19 Jul-21 Jul 100/095/095 90 Day Mean 18 Jul 129
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 17 Jul 009/018 Förväntat Afr/Ap 18 Jul 004/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 007/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 19 Jul till 21 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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