Viewing archive of söndag, 1 juli 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Jul 01 2240 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 183 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 01 Jul 2012 ::::::::::Corrected Copy::::::::::IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 30-2100Z till 01-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1513 (N16E03)
produced an M2/Sb at 01/1918Z. The region did not show any
significant growth or decay during the period. Region 1515 (S17E17)
continued to grow in areal coverage and is now 850 millionths. New
Region 1517 (N19E26) was numbered overnight.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with isolated M-class flares likely for the next three days (02-04 July).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 30-2100Z till 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active during the past 24
hours due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Minor
storm periods were observed at high latitudes along with an isolated
major storm period from 01/0900-1200Z. Solar wind speeds were steady
at approximately 650 km/s with a total field strength of 5 nT
throughout the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active storm
periods on days one and two (02-03 July) due to continued CH HSS
effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (04
July) as effects from the CH HSS begin to wane.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 02 Jul till 04 Jul
| M-klass | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 01 Jul 133 Prognoserat 02 Jul-04 Jul 135/140/140 90 Day Mean 01 Jul 119
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 30 Jun 021/027 Förväntat Afr/Ap 01 Jul 016/018 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 013/018-013/015-007/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 02 Jul till 04 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 35% | 35% | 15% |
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