Viewing archive of måndag, 11 juni 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Jun 11 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 163 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 11 Jun 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1507 (S26E17) was the
most active region of the period, producing several C-flares. The
largest of these was a C1/Sf at 1903Z. Region 1504 (S17E40) is the
largest group on the disk and managed to produce a C-class flare.
Regions 1504 and 1507 are both growing steadily. There were no
Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to range
from low to moderate. An isolated M-class event is likely with
Regions 1504 and 1507 the most probable source.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was generally quiet to unsettled. Minor storm
levels were observed at high latitudes during 10/0600Z to 10/0900Z.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (12 June). An increase
in activity is expected mid-day due to a glancing blow from a CME
observed on 08 June. Activity is expected to return to quiet
partway through day 2 (13 June) as the effects of the CME subside.
Activity is expected to remain quiet on day 3 (14 June).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 12 Jun till 14 Jun
| M-klass | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 11 Jun 134 Prognoserat 12 Jun-14 Jun 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 11 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 10 Jun 006/005 Förväntat Afr/Ap 11 Jun 010/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 007/008-006/008-006/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 12 Jun till 14 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 25% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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