Viewing archive of söndag, 10 juni 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Jun 10 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 162 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 10 Jun 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1504 (S18E51)
produced an M1 flare at 10/0645Z and grew to end the period as a Dac
type group with a beta magnetic configuration. New Regions 1506
(N11E66) and 1507 (S26E29) were numbered today and classified as Cao
and Dao type groups, respectively, with beta type magnetic
configurations. The remaining regions were generally stable.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to range
from low to moderate. An isolated M-class event is likely from
Region 1504.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was generally at quiet levels. Wind speed at
the ACE spacecraft was approximately 440 km/s through the period.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between
+/-4 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to range from quiet to unsettled levels for the next
three days (11-13 June) with a chance for an isolated active period
on the first two days. A weak coronal hole high speed stream is
expected on day one (11 June) and a glancing blow from the 08 June
CME is expected on day 2 (12 June). Day three will see a return to
mostly quiet conditions.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 11 Jun till 13 Jun
| M-klass | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 10 Jun 128 Prognoserat 11 Jun-13 Jun 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 10 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 09 Jun 009/010 Förväntat Afr/Ap 10 Jun 005/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 11 Jun till 13 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 30% | 30% | 20% |
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