Viewing archive of tisdag, 5 juni 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Jun 05 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 157 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 05 Jun 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
1499 (N15E17) produced the largest x-ray event of the period with a
C4/2f at 05/2059Z. New Region 1503 (N11W38) was numbered today and
is considered a Bxo-beta type spot group. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed during the period.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event for the next
three days (06-08 June).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active during the past 24
hours due to continued effects from a favorably positioned coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds increased from
approximately 650 km/s to 750 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) Bt remained stable at about 8 nT. The Bz component of
the IMF varied between +6 and -7 nT but held steady at approximately
-5 nT for the last 2 hours of the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with active periods likely on day one (06
June) due to continued effects from the CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled
conditions, with a chance for isolated active periods, are expected
on days two and three (07-08 June) as the CH HSS effects subside.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 06 Jun till 08 Jun
| M-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 05 Jun 139 Prognoserat 06 Jun-08 Jun 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 05 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 04 Jun 014/018 Förväntat Afr/Ap 05 Jun 014/018 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 014/018-011/015-007/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 06 Jun till 08 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 55% | 40% | 30% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/05/01 | M1.9 |
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| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
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