Viewing archive of onsdag, 2 maj 2012

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 May 02 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 123 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 02 May 2012

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. Old Region 1468 (N11W96) produced two low level C-class events before rotating off the west limb. Region 1469 (S23W39) showed some rapid growth in the trailer spot region and is now magnetically classified as a beta-gamma. As Region 1469 was growing, it also produced two C-class x-ray events. Early in the period, a full-halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery, but analysis indicated this was a backsided event. Around 02/1007Z, in SDO imagery, a large filament was observed lifting off the northwest limb of the solar disk. LASCO C2 imagery showed a CME around 02/1336Z that is believed to be associated with the filament eruption. Further analysis is needed to determine if this CME will become geoeffective. A new region was numbered today, Region 1474 (N14E71), as it rotated onto the northeast limb.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next three days (03 - 05 May) as Regions 1469 and 1471 (S21E19) continue to evolve.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (03 - 05 May).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 03 May till 05 May
M-klass15%15%15%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       02 May 116
  Prognoserat   03 May-05 May  115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        02 May 112
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 01 May  003/004
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 02 May  003/004
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 03 May till 05 May
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt05%05%05%
Små stormförhållanden01%01%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt15%15%15%
Små stormförhållanden10%10%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%05%

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