Viewing archive of fredag, 20 januari 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Jan 20 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 020 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 20 Jan 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low with no flares detected.
Region 1401 (N15W01) showed intermediate spot development during the
period and was classified as an Eki group with beta magnetic
structure. Region 1402 (N28E03) showed no significant changes and
was classified as a Dki group with beta magnetic structure. No new
regions were numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (21 - 23 January) with a chance for an M-class
flare from Region 1401 or 1402.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. An enhancement of the greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit began around 20/0800Z and
continued through the end of the period. The enhancement was
associated with the long-duration M3/2n flare observed on 19
January.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels during day 1 (21 January) and most of
day 2 (22 January). Field activity is expected to increase to
unsettled to active levels late on day 2 and day 3 (23 January) with
a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of the halo-CME
observed on 19 January. There will be a slight chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit during the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 21 Jan till 23 Jan
| M-klass | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 20 Jan 141 Prognoserat 21 Jan-23 Jan 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 20 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 19 Jan 001/003 Förväntat Afr/Ap 20 Jan 003/004 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 004/005-010/010-010/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 21 Jan till 23 Jan
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 05% | 25% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 15% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 30% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 20% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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